{"id":21396,"date":"2023-08-31T08:47:07","date_gmt":"2023-08-31T15:47:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/essential.construction\/news\/job-openings-behind-the-headlines-construction-analytics\/"},"modified":"2023-08-31T08:47:08","modified_gmt":"2023-08-31T15:47:08","slug":"job-openings-behind-the-headlines-construction-analytics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/essential.construction\/news\/job-openings-behind-the-headlines-construction-analytics\/","title":{"rendered":"Job Openings \u2013 Behind the Headlines \u00ab Construction Analytics"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Construction Job Openings \u2013 Behind the Headlines <\/p>\n

Recent data indicates ~ 300k job openings. Let\u2019s look at support. To support those openings, there must be an equivalent added volume of work.<\/p>\n

As we entered 2020, construction spending (in current $) was at a (then) all-time high of $1.530 trillion(t). Let\u2019s set that point in time as the base and track growth since. Construction spending peaked in March 2023 at $1.970t and is currently at about $1.950t.<\/p>\n

Volume growth in constant $ (constant $ = spending minus inflation) fell from $1.530t to $1.350t in Oct\u201922, has since returned to $1.450t as of June. So real volume growth is up off the bottom, but is still $80t or 5% below 2020. It is forecast to fall $50t over the next 6 months and return to current level in mid-2024.<\/p>\n

Jobs, as we entered 2020, stood at 7.600 million(m). Jobs rapidly fell to 6.500m but recovered most of that by Dec 2020. Jobs now stand at 7.970m, up 5% since Jan 2020.<\/p>\n

So, let\u2019s summarize the facts: Since Jan 2020, spending is now nearly equal, volume of work is down 5%, but jobs are up 5%. So, since Jan 2020, jobs have increased 10% in excess of volume of work to support those jobs.<\/p>\n

By my calc, if we were to add 300k jobs, either today or over the next year, we would see jobs increase by another 4%. Jobs growth since Jan\u201920 would exceed volume growth by nearly 14%. You might argue that 300k openings are there to fill the void of jobs supporting the current workload, but jobs growth already exceeds volume growth by 10% in the last 3 years. <\/p>\n

Anyone want to try to explain how job openings of 300k is supported by the data?<\/p>\n

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Note 1: Job openings as of July are closer to 400,000<\/p>\n

Note 2: plots shows baseline back to 2020 and 2001. Baseline 2001 situation becomes worse. See prior post https:\/\/edzarenski.com\/2023\/08\/05\/midyear-23-jobs-outlook\/ for plots to baeline 2011 and 2020.<\/p>\n

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