{"id":31479,"date":"2025-07-23T07:02:56","date_gmt":"2025-07-23T14:02:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/essential.construction\/news\/wood-mackenzie-sees-extended-sunset-for-costly-coal-power\/"},"modified":"2025-07-23T07:02:56","modified_gmt":"2025-07-23T14:02:56","slug":"wood-mackenzie-sees-extended-sunset-for-costly-coal-power","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/essential.construction\/news\/wood-mackenzie-sees-extended-sunset-for-costly-coal-power\/","title":{"rendered":"Wood Mackenzie sees extended \u2018sunset\u2019 for costly coal power"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> [ad_1]<br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<div class=\"text-to-speech\">\n    <button class=\"text-to-speech__button button\"><br \/>\n        <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"text-to-speech__button__icon\" src=\"https:\/\/www.constructiondive.com\/static\/img\/play.svg?500116090725\" alt=\"-\"><br \/>\n        Listen to the article<br \/>\n        <span class=\"text-to-speech__button__audio-length\">5 min<\/span><br \/>\n    <\/button><\/p>\n<div class=\"text-to-speech__controls\">\n        <audio controls=\"\" class=\"js-text-to-speech\" preload=\"none\"><source src=\"https:\/\/res.cloudinary.com\/dmgi9movl\/video\/upload\/q_1\/v1753204602\/news\/text_to_speech\/wood-mackenzie-coal-power-trump_djfqtn.wav\" type=\"audio\/mp3\"><\/source><\/audio><\/p>\n<div class=\"text-to-speech__controls__text\">\n            This audio is auto-generated. Please let us know if you have <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.constructiondive.com\/contact\/\" target=\"_blank\">feedback<\/a>.\n        <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>\u00a0<\/h2>\n<h3><span><span><span><span><span><span>Dive Brief:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><span><span><span><span><span><span>Rising electricity demand and a slowdown in the buildout of alternative sources of power generation could extend the use of coal globally and displace 2,100 GW of gas and renewables by 2050, Wood Mackenzie <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.woodmac.com\/horizons\/new-energy-realities-risk-extending-coal-sunset\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>said in a report earlier this month<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><span><span><span><span><span><span>.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span><span><span><span><span><span>Under a high demand scenario<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span><span><span><span><span>,<\/span><\/span><strong><span><span> <\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><span><span><span><span><span><span>coal-fired power generation could peak in 2030, four years later than the analysis\u2019 \u201cbase case\u201d forecast.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span><span><span><span><span><span>The economics and politics of coal are strongest in Asia. In the United States, coal is more expensive than gas or solar and storage, but the cost of building new gas power plants has nearly doubled and long-duration energy storage technology is <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.utilitydive.com\/news\/innovation-long-duration-energy-storage-cost-reduction-flow-battery-compressed-air-pumped-hydro\/724121\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>not yet mature enough<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><span><span><span><span><span><span> to convert solar and wind into true \u201cbaseload\u201d resources, the report said.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3><span><span><span><span><span><span>Dive Insight:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>In Asia, national security concerns and economics favor coal for now, said Anthony Knutson, global head of thermal coal markets at Wood Mackenzie, although when it comes to just levelized cost, hybrid solar and storage remain cheaper than coal or gas.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>\u201cWhile the long-term trajectory towards renewables remains intact, the path is proving far more complex than many anticipated as countries grapple with energy security and affordability concerns,\u201d Knutson said in a statement.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Wood Mackenzie expects the levelized cost of unabated coal-fired power in the Asia and Pacific region to remain below $100\/MWh in 2030, lower than the expected levelized cost of gas-fired power there.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Coal-fueled power in the United States will cost about $230\/MWh in the United States and about $270\/MWh in Europe in 2030, according to the report. By then, gas-fired power will cost about $100\/MWh in the United States and about $150\/MWh in Europe, it said.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Hybrid solar and storage <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/sustainability\/climate-energy\/renewable-energy-remains-cheapest-power-builds-new-gas-plants-get-pricier-2025-06-16\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>will undercut<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><span><span><span><span><span><span> coal and gas in all three regions, coming in around $60\/MWh in Asia, $70\/MWh in Europe and $80\/MWh in the United States.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Though the economics of gas-fired generation are more favorable in the U.S. than in Asian and European countries that rely on liquefied natural gas imports, its ability to match surging AI load growth forecasts is limited, the report said. While long-duration energy storage technology has advanced significantly in recent years, it cannot provide baseload power yet, it said.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>It\u2019s also becoming more expensive to replace aging coal plants with gas and renewables, causing \u201csticker shock\u201d for power producers looking to make the switch, the report said. It blamed tariffs, reshoring of production and infrastructure delays for pushing up the cost of new solar while noting a near-doubling of U.S. costs for new gas power plant builds.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Higher replacement costs and rising capacity market prices are increasing the value of existing coal assets, WoodMac said. Capacity prices <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.utilitydive.com\/news\/pjm-interconnection-capacity-auction-vistra-constellation\/722872\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>rose nearly tenfold<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><span><span><span><span><span><span> across parts of the PJM Interconnection last year, leading the grid operator to <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.utilitydive.com\/news\/ferc-pjm-interconnection-capacity-auction-price-cap-collar\/745979\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>set a capacity price \u201ccollar\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><span><span><span><span><span><span> for its next two auctions.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>In the report\u2019s \u201chigh coal demand case,\u201d thermal coal use plateaus and then falls slowly toward 2050, remaining 32% higher on average. The base case sees thermal coal use peaking next year and falling steadily through 2030.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Combined with a corresponding slowdown in additions of cleaner power generating capacity and without \u201csignificant investment in carbon capture and storage capacity,\u201d carbon emissions from unabated coal could rise by 2 billion tonnes, according to the report.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>WoodMac said that could further threaten international efforts to limit warming to 2\u00b0C or less, which renowned U.S. climate scientist James Hansen <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2025\/feb\/04\/climate-change-target-of-2c-is-dead-says-renowned-climate-scientist\" target=\"_blank\"><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>called \u201cdead\u201d earlier this year<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><span><span><span><span><span><span>. Hansen first warned of the dangers of human-caused climate change in a 1988 Congressional hearing that <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/grist.org\/article\/a-climate-hero-an-outspoken-truth\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>environmentalists credit<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><span><span><span><span><span><span> with raising public awareness of the issue.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The analysis is not a forecast but \u201ca warning of what inaction could bring,\u201d Wood Mackenzie Director of Energy Transition Practice David Brown said in a statement.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>\u201cWithout urgent actions, the world faces a growing risk of drifting towards a 3\u00b0C pathway,\u201d Brown said. \u201cOur high coal demand case is \u2026 a reminder of what can still be prevented.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>It\u2019s unclear how durable coal demand will prove if near-term demand pushes up prices and Western financial institutions remain reluctant to finance new mining projects, WoodMac said. Sovereign wealth funds and private equity groups would need to step up to cover the investment shortfall, it added.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>And the global coal fleet\u2019s long-term viability likely rests on asset owners\u2019 willingness to invest in plant upgrades that improve load-following capabilities and overall efficiency; retrofits that allow co-firing with alternative fuels like hydrogen and ammonia; and bolt-on carbon capture infrastructure, WoodMac said.\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>China has retrofitted about 15% of its coal fleet to improve load-following, but the technology remains nascent elsewhere, according to WoodMac. So does co-firing, despite keen interest in South Korea and Japan. Carbon capture, utilization and storage \u2014 which WoodMac calls the \u201choly grail\u201d of coal relevance \u2014 also remains in its infancy, with just <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nrg.com\/case-studies\/petra-nova.html\" target=\"_blank\"><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>one operational U.S. project<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><span><span><span><span><span><span> in Texas and <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/insideclimatenews.org\/news\/10122024\/north-dakota-coal-plant-carbon-capture-project-faces-new-delay\/\" target=\"_blank\"><span><span><span><span><span><span><span><span>questions dogging the future<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><span><span><span><span><span><span> of a much larger proposal in North Dakota following the lead contractor\u2019s exit last year.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>[ad_2]<br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.constructiondive.com\/news\/wood-mackenzie-coal-power-trump\/753693\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">This article was originally posted at Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[ad_1] Listen to the article 5 min This audio is auto-generated. Please let us know if you have feedback. \u00a0 &#8230; <a title=\"Wood Mackenzie sees extended \u2018sunset\u2019 for costly coal power\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/essential.construction\/news\/wood-mackenzie-sees-extended-sunset-for-costly-coal-power\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Wood Mackenzie sees extended \u2018sunset\u2019 for costly coal power\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[457],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31479","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-construction-dive","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/essential.construction\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31479","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/essential.construction\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/essential.construction\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/essential.construction\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/essential.construction\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31479"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/essential.construction\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31479\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/essential.construction\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31479"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/essential.construction\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31479"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/essential.construction\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31479"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}