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OTTAWA \u2014 Canada\u2019s economy contracted for a second straight month in May even as some sectors held up in the face of U.S. tariffs.<\/p>\n
Real gross domestic product fell 0.1 per cent in May, Statistics Canada said, matching the decline in April.<\/p>\n
The agency said goods-producing sectors were to blame for the drop, particularly in mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction. RBC pointed to wildfires in the Prairies temporarily dragging down oil and gas activity.<\/p>\n
Marc Ercolao, an economist with TD Bank, said in an interview Canada\u2019s services sectors are holding up relatively well even as trade-exposed industries feel some sting from U.S. import duties.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re still in the early days, but we are seeing the impact of tariffs flow through some of these industries,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Manufacturing, one of the most tariff-exposed sectors of the economy, continues to face headwinds.<\/p>\n
Though the sector grew 0.7 per cent in May, that wasn\u2019t enough to fully recoup a 1.8 per cent drop in April.<\/p>\n
StatCan\u2019s early estimates also see the industry contracting again in June.<\/p>\n
Transportation and warehousing also rebounded from an April decline.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe good news here is that the Canadian economy seems to have soldiered through the period of maximum trade uncertainty with less damage than initially expected,\u201d wrote BMO chief economist Doug Porter in a note to clients recently.<\/p>\n
StatCan\u2019s early estimates for June show an expected rebound of 0.1 per cent in real GDP. The agency pointed to strength in retail and wholesale trade driving the growth.<\/p>\n
Taken together, the agency said its advance reading for the second quarter of the year shows the economy was essentially flat. Its early estimates will be updated with the release of the June GDP figures next month.<\/p>\n
Ercolao said he expects these conditions to broadly persist until Canada can secure a trade deal with the United States.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs long as there is this lingering uncertainty, it\u2019s going to impact economic activity across industries, it is going to impact investment decision making, and that would probably lead to another weaker Q3,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
The Bank of Canada said in its monetary policy report it expects real GDP fell 1.5 per cent on an annual basis in the second quarter amid considerable uncertainty tied to U.S. tariffs.<\/p>\n
Porter noted the StatCan monthly GDP figures measure output by industry, while the Bank of Canada\u2019s estimates will track actual spending in the economy.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe output and spending estimates don\u2019t always line up, especially when there is a big change in exports and imports, as was certainly the case in each of the past two quarters,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n
Porter said a sharp drop in Canada\u2019s export volumes tied to the U.S. trade disruption will likely drag down second quarter GDP based on spending \u2014 figures StatCan will release at the end of August.<\/p>\n
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.75 per cent for a third consecutive time amid what it called signs of resilience in the Canadian economy.<\/p>\n
Ercolao said that, since the May GDP figures were roughly in line with expectations, the Bank of Canada probably won\u2019t be swayed one way or another by the latest data.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe just had the Bank of Canada meeting yesterday and they seem to be OK with where the economy is,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
The central bank will get two more looks at inflation before its next interest rate decision on Sept. 17, which Ercolao said would have a bigger say in where interest rates head from here.<\/p>\n
StatCan said a busier May for home resales, particularly in Toronto, saw activity tick up in the real estate and rental industry. Ercolao said it\u2019s too soon to say whether this is the start of a new trend in the housing market or just a blip, \u201cbut there\u2019s some early signs that there might be some recovery on the horizon.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u00a92025 The Canadian Press<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n