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It has been reliably easy for years, maybe even decades, to call Toronto\u00a0the hottest new housing market among all cities in Canada. TO\u2019s usual dominance has been such that its unit-starts number annually has often been close to those of the second and third place performers added together.<\/p>\n
TO\u2019s numerical strength has originated in the multi-family market, particularly condominium tower work, more than in the single-family component, explaining why Toronto has consistently led all Canadian and U.S. cities in construction crane count statistics.<\/p>\n
Presently, though, through 2025 to date, these supposed truisms no longer have validity. There are some new champions among Canadian cities, according to the housing starts numbers published by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).<\/p>\n
Among Canada\u2019s six biggest urban areas, and the only ones with populations of a million or more each, the leader for year-to-date (January-August 2025) total housing starts, in units, is Calgary, with 18,632. In second spot lies Vancouver, 18,405 units; in third, Montreal, 16,721 units. Sitting in a far-back position never visited before, at least not in recent memory, is Toronto with 16,451 units. Completing the Top 6 are Edmonton, 14,701 units, and Ottawa-Gatineau, 8,416 units.<\/p>\n
On a year-to-date percentage-change basis, the frontrunner is Montreal (+47%), followed by Ottawa-Gatineau (+32%), Edmonton (+23%), and Calgary (+22%). Vancouver is essentially flat (-1%). Toronto (-47%), in shocking fashion, is posting a total-units starts number that is only about half what it was at this time last year.<\/p>\n
Multis as a percentage of total unit starts in Toronto can often reach 90%. This year to date, they have dropped a little below that standard, to 87%. But the truly eye-catching figure is that on a year-to-date basis, they are -47%. The demand for new condominiums among potential buyers in TO has dried up dramatically.<\/p>\n
The drop-off in multi-unit starts has been mainly confined to Toronto. Vancouver multi-unit starts have been lackluster versus the first eight months of last year, at no change (0%), but Calgary has seen an increase in multi-unit starts of +30%, Edmonton, +32%; Ottawa-Gatineau, +39%; and Montreal, +49%.<\/p>\n
In a historical context, Canadian housing starts are not underachieving to the degree perhaps being conveyed by the media. The problem, though, is that the enormous population increases of the past several years have pointed to the need for a great many more groundbreakings annually than have been necessary in the past.<\/p>\n
The federal government has launched a \u2018Build Canada Homes\u2019 initiative to make more public lands available for housing. The Mark Carney Liberals are also placing considerable reliance on incentives for\u00a0modular construction\u00a0<\/a>to help bump up the numbers on the supply side.<\/p>\n Provinces and municipalities are taking steps to reduce regulations and provide tax breaks to homebuilders, through such measures as standardizing building codes and delaying development charges until occupancy, as set out in Ontario\u2019s Bill 17, the Building Faster and Smarter Act.<\/p>\n Plus, there is the reality that demand in the short term, at least in the Toronto multi-unit marketplace, has become disturbingly and disappointingly sub-normal.<\/p>\n Super high prices have been a demand-blunting factor through knee-capping affordability. However, on a positive note, the Bank of Canada has been mildly aggressive in lowering interest rates to 2.5% for its key policy-setting overnight rate. The equivalent\u00a0U.S. federal funds rate<\/a>\u00a0is expressed as a range, and it is notably higher at 4.00% to 4.25%.<\/p>\n A chief obstacle to new housing demand being cited at this time is the uncertainty created by the prohibitive and unstable tariff regime newly established in the trading relationship between the U.S. and Canada. Ontario, which is Canada\u2019s industrial heartland, is experiencing an\u00a0economy\u00a0<\/a>inhibited by its neighbor\u2019s sharp tariffs on steel and the auto sector. Many domestic workers well know that their jobs are in jeopardy, a factor not conducive to making a new home purchase.<\/p>\n But\u00a0energy\u00a0<\/a>products are still being allowed to flow restriction-free south across the border, and that\u2019s terrific news for Alberta\u2019s economy and, as is apparent from the province\u2019s +21% year-to-date gain in total unit starts, for its housing sector.<\/p>\n A note for U.S. readers:\u00a0America\u2019s townhouse numbers are generally included among single-family statistics, unless several such units share one HVAC system. Then they are included among multis. In Canada, all townhouses are categorized as multi-unit residential statistics.<\/p>\n At\u00a0ConstructConnect<\/a>, our software solutions provide the information construction professionals need to start every project on a solid foundation. For more than 100 years, our keen insights and market intelligence have empowered commercial firms, building product manufacturers, trade contractors, and architects to make data-driven decisions, streamline\u00a0preconstruction<\/a>\u00a0workflows, and maximize their productivity. Our newest offerings\u2014including our comprehensive, AI-assisted software\u2014help our clients find, bid on, and win more projects.<\/p>\n ConstructConnect operates as a business unit of\u00a0Roper Technologies<\/a>\u00a0(Nasdaq: ROP), a constituent of the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Fortune 1000.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\u00a0<\/h3>\n
Provincial and Municipal Reforms<\/h3>\n
\u00a0<\/h3>\n
The Toronto Market Slowdown<\/h3>\n
\u00a0<\/h3>\n
Economic Headwinds and Regional Impacts<\/h3>\n
\u00a0<\/h3>\n
Alberta\u2019s Advantage<\/h3>\n
About ConstructConnect<\/h4>\n