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We\u2019re already three weeks into 2026, and to kick the year off, it seems as good of a time as any to talk \u2014 not about all the transit projects currently being built \u2014 but what might come next for the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, transit-wise. As the Finch West and Eglinton lines open, and the Provincial government’s various subway projects continue forward rapidly, it\u2019s worth asking what is and should be in the pipeline, and why.\u00a0<\/p>\n
We will look at this across four stories this week, one story covering each transit mode in detail. In the coming days we will be looking at GO Transit, Bus Rapid Transit and Light Rail Lines, and Hybrid Rail, but\u2026<\/p>\n
\u2026the most natural place to start our look is a sort of continuation of current policy, as Doug Ford\u2019s current government has quite a bit of life in it, and may well get elected again given what we\u2019ve seen before. If that was to be the case, then I think it\u2019s pretty clear what we\u2019d be getting: subways, subways\u2026 you get it…<\/p>\n
Subways<\/strong><\/p>\n The most obvious subway project that we will see by my determination, almost regardless of what government is in power, is the extension of Eglinton Line 5 just a little bit further to Pearson airport, likely with just one or two additional stops. Pearson is a huge airport \u2014 the biggest in the country \u2014 and has very strong growth numbers as the region continues to grow, and grow wealthier. If airports like Vancouver, Montreal, and Ottawa justify one air rail link, Pearson certainly justifies two, especially because the UP Express is lower capacity than the air rail links serving both Vancouver and Montreal\u2019s airports, and isn\u2019t even electric.<\/p>\n I think a big trend we are going to see over the coming decades is Pearson\u2019s continued growth, even relative to other Canadian cities, as the GTA just has so much more growth potential than Canada\u2019s other largest regions. Already we can anticipate a big expansion of terminal 1 in the next decade, and opening Eglinton Line 5 to coincide with this seems natural. Perhaps GTAA will even help directly fund the extension.<\/p>\n I think it\u2019s also fairly likely we will see the extension of Sheppard Line 4 in both directions. The eastern extension is similar in scale to the under-construction Yonge North or Scarborough subway extensions, and feels like a big part of the \u201csubways for Scarborough\u201d Doug Ford and his late brother had long promised. The western extension, at least to the University leg of Line 1, also seems likely given its short length, its connection to a potential yard site at Downsview Park, and the massive housing plans there \u2014 visited last year by Mark Carney, who might be convinced to give this nationally-significant housing development some nation-building projects funding! Of course, it\u2019s also important to say this is the only rapid transit beyond the Eglinton extension to Pearson that Metrolinx is actively moving forward on, at least in public.<\/p>\n Turning again to the west of the region, we start talking about more prospective projects. Perhaps the most glaring hole in current plans is the lack of a western extension on Bloor Line 2, which would be the only part of the TTC subway network\u2019s original two lines to be left without an extension in the 21st century. A short extension to the Sherway Gardens area feels basically inevitable given the mall’s growth as a regional retail destination and the relative ease of such an extension, with the potential for it to be built entirely or almost-entirely above grade. What’s interesting though is that with the Sherway extension built, a further extension all the way to Mississauga City Centre, which is developing rapidly into what will be one of the biggest suburban nodes in region, would only be about the length of the Yonge North or Scarborough Subway Extensions as well. Given the growth of Peel Region and Mississauga City Centre, it\u2019s surprising that they have not received a TTC subway extension, especially as York Region will soon have two. Such an extension could have just a few stations, serving Cooksville, City Centre, and the Dundas corridor.<\/p>\n Back to the City of Toronto, it seems obvious that Ontario Line 3 extensions will be prioritized, given the project is the city\u2019s premier transit project, likely to be very popular given its high-quality service and great views, and the relatively low-cost enabled by above-ground expansion, particularly on the north end.\u00a0<\/p>\n It seems likely to me that the line will be extended north from Eglinton to Sheppard, helping to relieve more of Yonge Line 1, where congestion begins north of Eglinton (something which will only be exacerbated by the northern extension). I would implore planners and politicians to consider extending the line even further north to at least Finch, which could provide an extra station or two serving areas with lots of dense housing, as well as a connection to Seneca Polytechnic\u2019s main campus at Don Mills and Finch as a northern anchor. This extension should be able to be built largely on rapidly-constructed elevated guideways.<\/p>\n It also seems likely that a western extension of Ontario Line 3 might be pursued. While some have discussed extending the line to South Etobicoke, this seems redundant with the Lakeshore West line; meanwhile, an extension to Dundas West would require just two kilometres of tunneling (since the extension could run at-grade along Lakeshore West GO tracks until Roncesvalles). This would improve connectivity to one of Toronto\u2019s largest transit hubs, connect the Ontario line to the Kitchener line and UP Express as well as possibly the Barrie line \u2014 major missing connections on the first phase. This project could also be extended just three kilometres further, possibly above ground along rail corridors to the Junction, one of Toronto\u2019s most happening neighbourhoods which currently lacks rapid transit.<\/p>\n Of course, it\u2019s also possible that other lines are extended. University Line 1 being extended further north in Vaughan to Wonderland is kicked around, and should it be built elevated along the\u00a0very wide Jane Street, this isn\u2019t unthinkable. Since the Yonge North subway extension is set to end at-grade, much like the western end of Bloor Line 2 at Kipling being extended to Sherway, further extensions north need not be extremely expensive, and seems conceivable if coordinated with major housing projects.<\/p>\n An extension of Eglinton Line 5 east is also\u00a0very interesting, because of the potential to connect it to the Lakeshore East GO line, providing more direct trips to Scarborough, Midtown, and North York (supposing the line isn\u2019t as slow as the Finch LRT, in which case Line 1 might provide a more compelling journey). This project is complicated by the alignment of the Scarborough subway extension east of Kennedy station, but solutions are conceivable such as reconstructing the final stretch of Line 5 into Kennedy.<\/p>\n We’ll will be back tomorrow to look at extensions and improvements to GO Transit.<\/p>\n * * *<\/p>\n Reece Martin is a well-known advocate for good transit, worldwide. He is based in Toronto and blogs at nextmetro.substack<\/a>.<\/p>\n Base map \u00a9 is by UrbanToronto Forum contributor WB62, and is not affiliated with Metrolinx or other transit agencies and should not be considered an official source or confirmation of Metrolinx projects.<\/p>\n * * *<\/p>\n UrbanToronto will continue to follow progress on this development, but in the meantime, you can learn more about it from our Database files, linked below. If you’d like, you can join in on the conversation in the associated Line 5<\/a> and Line 6<\/a> Forum threads, or leave a comment in the space provided on this page.<\/p>\n * * *<\/p>\n UrbanToronto has a research service,\u00a0UTPro<\/a>, that provides comprehensive data on development projects in the Greater Golden Horseshoe \u2014 from proposal through to completion. We also offer\u00a0Instant Reports<\/a>, downloadable snapshots based on location, and a daily subscription newsletter,\u00a0New Development Insider<\/a>, that tracks projects from initial application.\u200b\u200b\u200b<\/p>\n <\/imgx><\/imgx><\/imgx><\/imgx><\/imgx><\/imgx><\/imgx><\/imgx><\/div>\n