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CALGARY, ALTA. \u2014 Countries that show the most backbone are the ones best able to withstand belligerent U.S. trade policy, said a former U.S. State Department official who expressed optimism the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement will be renewed.<\/p>\n
Edward Fishman, author of \u201cChokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare,\u201d shared his outlook recently during a luncheon hosted by the University of Calgary\u2019s Haskayne School of Business.<\/p>\n
The Columbia University adjunct professor said he can imagine Canadians feel like \u201csitting ducks\u201d as their closest trading partner bombards adversaries and allies alike with tariff threats.<\/p>\n
But he said the trading relationship doesn\u2019t just flow one way and the U.S. would suffer significant economic harm if trade with Canada were to be cut off.<\/p>\n
Fishman said U.S. political and business leaders \u2014 even those with a conservative bent \u2014 feel strongly about the importance of cross-border trade and are likely to temper President Donald Trump\u2019s daily whims.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhile you might not be able to trust the specific individual, I do think that, ultimately, there\u2019s preponderance of support for open trade between the United States, Canada and Mexico,\u201d he told reporters.<\/p>\n
Fishman said in an onstage discussion that resolve, resilience and a willingness to retaliate are the best ways to respond to U.S. tariffs.<\/p>\n
India showed resolve in the face of 50 per cent U.S. tariffs, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi refusing to \u201cscurry to Trump and get ready to make a deal the way the European Union did a couple of months earlier,\u201d Fishman said.<\/p>\n
\u201cHe galvanized public support to endure some short-term pain.\u201d<\/p>\n
Brazil best embodied resilience, posting its best year for exports in 2025 despite a 50 per cent U.S. tariff. It did so by finding new markets for its beef, coffee and other products.<\/p>\n
The bulk of Canada\u2019s energy exports go to the United States and there\u2019s been a push to further expand their reach into Asian markets with a new pipeline to the West Coast. Fishman is optimistic about the Canada-U.S. relationship, but said it does make sense for Canada to \u201chave some level of optionality\u201d by seeking out new trading partners.<\/p>\n
The world leaders that have successfully stood up to Trump, like Modi, weren\u2019t necessarily more wily than Prime Minister Mark Carney. They just had an easier task with less of their trade exposed to the U.S. market, Fishman said.<\/p>\n
The idea of retaliation makes many countries uncomfortable, but Fishman said China fought back effectively.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe single biggest geo-economic story of 2025 bar none was not the \u2018liberation day\u2019 tariffs. It was China\u2019s export controls on rare earth elements on the United States,\u201d said Fishman.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think it really rattled the Trump administration. And it showed, frankly, that when countries push back, they can actually establish some level of deterrence.\u201d<\/p>\n
He later told reporters that winning at economic warfare isn\u2019t necessarily about which country\u2019s economy performs better but which country can best weather the downside.<\/p>\n
\u201cI do think that in some ways China revealed the Achilles heel of the United States economic warfare policy in 2025, which is our low pain tolerance at a political level.\u201d<\/p>\n
Canada imposed some retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. last year, but the bulk have been removed.<\/p>\n
Canada\u2019s ability to knuckle down and endure U.S. trade attacks is hampered by how regionally varied its economy is, said Robert Johnston, director of energy and natural resources policy with the University of Calgary\u2019s School of Public Policy.<\/p>\n
\u201cAlberta hasn\u2019t really been impacted the way that Ontario has,\u201d he told reporters, citing the hard-hit manufacturing sector as an example. \u201cThat\u2019s the challenge, that the pain doesn\u2019t seem to be evenly distributed.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
Jackie Forrest, executive director of the ARC Energy Research Institute, said that\u2019s why provincial leaders need to get on the same page.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat\u2019s one of the issues that\u2019s slowing us down. Carney is at least bringing them together frequently and we need to keep doing that to get that alignment.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u00a92025 The Canadian Press<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n