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With the July 1 release every year, Census issues spending revisions to prior years, in this case to 2022 and 2023.
For 2022, Census added +$54bil (3%), mostly to Nonres Bldgs. The largest revisions in 2022 are Comm/Rtl +$10bil (+8%), Mnfg +$10bil (+8%), Power +$12bil (+11%).
For 2023, Census added +$44bil (+2%). The largest revisions are Comm/Rtl +$10bil (+7%), Amuse/Rec +$4bil (+11%) and Power +$12bil (+9%).
Along with 2022 and 2023, Census also revised Jan-Apr 2024. For the first four months of 2024, Census added +$14bil (2.2%), mostly to Residential +$7bil (+2.6%) and Power +$4bil (+8.4%).
Overall, total construction spending, including the May data for 2024, is now forecast +8.5% over 2023. With the upward revisions to Jan-Apr, Rsdn spending forecast is now +8% for 2024. Nonres and Nonbldg % growth over 2023 is down from prior forecasts because 2023 revisions were higher.
So far, through May, the inflation rate for all building types is much lower than the previous years. All inflation at this point is projected to finish 2024 between 3.5% and 5%. 2024 spending in constant$ will be the highest rate of volume growth since 2020. Keep in mind, the Constant$ in the table above (and in all the plots below) represents 2019$. If reported in 2024$ all total annual dollars would be higher. The percent change from year to year does not change.
While the first 5 months of 2024 show no new highs for residential starts, the average of the first five months is higher than the average for 2023. Starts in 2022 still hold the highest monthly and highest annual average for residential starts.
