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Construction Analytics updates the Construction Spending Forecast every month, usually publishing at least every other month. The AIA Consensus solicits forecasts from 9 firms that prepare construction spending forecasts and publishes a Consensus Forecast every January and every June-July. The AIA Consensus reports only on nonresidential buildings.
This table captures the percents growth issued by the 9 firms reporting in the AIA Consensus and the Consensus average. Included is Construction Analytics full forecast. Also included, FMI and Construct Connect also provide full forecasts. Capturing this history provides a ready template to compare “How’d we do?” at the end of the year. It’s not often that we get to look back at forecasts to see how they performed when compared to the actual results.
You can see in this most recent 2025 table that some of the forecasts vary widely. For instance, in the most recent forecast for 2025: Data Centers range from +17% to +42%. Manufacturing from -11% to +18%. Educational -2% to +10%. Healthcare -0.6% to +21%. Lodging -7% to +22%. Very few (if any) forecasts are in agreement. Both the high and the low of these forecasts cannot be correct. That’s why it’s valuable to capture the data and compare it to actuals once all the data is in at the end of the year. Actually, the final annual actual value is subject to Census revisions until July of the following year.
This is the current forecast for 2025 nonresidential Buildings spending
Here are some past results. You will see that I’ve done better in some forecasts than others. But, even when I don’t come out with the best forecast, I usually score some of the 2nd best estimates. So, all-in-all, I’ve put together some forecasts that I am comfortable with. A few times, I’ve missed the 1st or 2nd best estimates but came very close. The numbers don’t lie. We post our forecasts and wish for the best. Sometimes we get the best.
There are some older posts on this blog that capture this info from earlier years. Not even sure at this point what the title of the post would be to search for them. If you are so inclined, try searching for AIA or for the word Compare or Consensus.