[ad_1]
The headline construction data is the year-to-date (ytd) comparison. Through July data, ytd2025 is -2.2% compared to ytd2024. But where is it headed. Watch for this. Last year spending was increasing until it peaked in October. This year spending is falling and will continue to fall into Q3. Every month now the ytd spread gets worse, because 2025 is decreasing and 2024 is increasing.
Construction Spending is down 7 out of the last 9mo, now down -3.5% or an inflation adjusted total -6.5% since October. Over that period spending is down most significantly in Residential. Residential spending peaked in October 2024. Since then it’s down 10% ($90bil). Warehouse is down -12% ($8bil). Manufacturing is down only 6% but that is $15bil. Manufacturing is experiencing the tail end of a huge volume of work that peaked also in Oct., 2024. It is expected to continue on a slowly declining spending slope for at least the next year. Spending is up the most now in Data Centers, on track to gain 32% (+$10bil) in 2025 and 31% ($13bil) in 2026.
When spending is up by just a little it looks like we are making progress. But we are always fighting inflation. If spending is up by 3% but inflation is 4%, then real business volume declined by 1%. If spending is down 5%, with 3% to 4% inflation, business volume is down 8% to 9%.
Overall, business is declining. The current data in the table below indicates constant$ spending, or business volume, drops for the next three years.
